I was drawn in to a Twitter conversation about election results a few minutes ago. The dialog was kicked off when one tweeter suggested if the outcome of the Ontario election was determined by which leader had the most “likes” of their Facebook Fan Page, Tim Hudak would win by a large margin. Another noted that Dalton McGuinty leads with the greatest number of Twitter followers.
All of this reminded me of a post I wrote during the federal election; a post which has even great meaning now than it did when it was published just a few days before we went to the polls. If Facebook decided Prime Minister… notes that as many “likes” as the leaders had at the time, an independent candidate trumped the top three combined with his 183,740 “likes”.
What makes that post even more interesting is, using the “logic” of most “likes”, the numbers suggested an Ignatieff-led minority government (recall, he didn’t even win his own seat), an NDP opposition, a third place showing for the conservatives (which would likely have ended Mr. Harper’s leadership) and a better seat count for the Green Party than the Bloc.
I prefer focusing on politicians’ level of authentic online engagement and participation. If nothing else, those offer insight into commitment to communication and accessibility. Still, I doubt very much they offer a credible polling metric.