The media are reporting the Quebec Liberals are in trouble and the PQ are facing a formidable challenge from the CAQ. Interestingly, the volume of online mentions between August 1 and 28 nearly mirrors that (see the graph, below).

Having said that, I’d never predict the outcome of an election based on the number of online mentions.

Among other things, this report doesn’t consider sentiment. I’m always skeptical of the sentiment as reported by automated analysis tools. They don’t negotiate sarcasm well, and they never consider context. Since I haven’t the time to review 40,000 mentions, or even a reasonable sample of that number, I rarely ever include sentiment within my analysis.

Analysis performed using Marketwire/Sysomos Heartbeat.

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