By September 28, 2013 3 Comments Read More →

Twitter prediction theory suggests Nenshi in Calgary, Iveson in Edmonton

I’m now expanding the test of Twitter as a predictor of election outcomes to include the mayoral races in Edmonton and Calgary.

In case you’re new to this project, read more about the inspiration for the project at Tweet count is a shot across the bow for traditional pollsters and follow the Nova Scotia election analysis I’m conducting.

The following analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat covers the period of September 21 through 27, inclusive.

Prediction for Calgary: Naheed Nenshi

The field of mayoral candidates in Calgary is fairly large. It’s widely expected incumbent, Naheed Nenshi, will walk away with the election. The hypothesis of the University of Indiana researchers supports this with Twitter showing 85% of the relevant mentions including his name. Missing from the following chart is candidate Amanda Liu who failed to earn any mentions this past week. Part of that may be Ms. Liu is not herself on Twitter.

130928-YYC-mayoral_race

Prediction for Edmonton: Don Iveson

Twitter’s view of the race in Edmonton paints a similar no-contest situation. with Don Iveson claiming 52% of the chatter. His closest Twitter contender, Kerry Diotte, has 29% of the mentioned, followed by Karen Leibovici with 18% of the mentions. [UPDATED AT 10:30amET to correct errors in data gathering.]

130928-YEG-mayoral_race

Analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat.

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About the Author:

Mark Blevis is a digital public affairs strategist and President of FullDuplex.ca, an integrated digital communications, public affairs and research company. His work focuses on the role of digital tools and culture on issues and reputation management. He also leads research into how Canadian opinions are shaped through online content and interactions.