Let’s open with some comparison to polls. Specifically, I became aware of an online survey conducted by the Edmonton Journal. Full Duplex‘s ongoing analysis aligns almost perfectly with their results, published September 23. Specifically, 47% of respondents indicated their intention to vote for Don Iveson, 28% for Kerry Diotte, 25% for Karen Leibovici. Our running total of share of Twitter mentions shows 44% for Iveson, 32% for Diotte and 21% for Leibovici.
As the mayoral races in Calgary and Edmonton press on, it’s time to streamline our analysis. Specifically, any candidate who was mentioned in fewer than 100 tweets between October 4 and 10 (inclusive) have been excluded from this week’s analysis. This includes Edmonton mayoral candidate, Gordon Ward who we only became aware of last night.
The following analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat covers the period of October 4 through October 10, inclusive. Election-to-date analysis is also provided ongoing analysis.
Prediction for Calgary: Naheed Nenshi
Six mayoral candidates fell below the 100 Twitter mentions threshold for the week. That means the exclusion of six candidates from this week’s analysis: Michael Abramenko, Oscar Fech, Amanda Liu, Alex Morozov, Helen Mowat, Milan Papez and Norm Perrault. The result is the struggling contenders in what appears to be a one-horse race. With 74% of the mentions, Twitter is predicting a Naheed Nenshi landslide victory.
Nenshi’s running total of Twitter mentions from September 21 through yesterday is a remarkable 80%.
Prediction for Edmonton: Don Iveson
Only four candidates for the job of Mayor of Edmonton broke the 100 tweet barrier for the week. Among them, Don Iveson leads with 40% of the mentions, followed fairly closely by Kerry Diotte at 34%. Third place Karen Leibovici trails at 22% and Josh Semotiuk sits at 4%.
Despite dropping one contender from the analysis (which one would assume give the remaining candidates more share), Iveson falls 3% in running share of mentions, putting him at 44% overall. Meanwhile, Diotte picks up 2% to 32%, Liebovici picks up 1% to 21% and Semotiuk has 2%.
Analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat.