It’s now my second week of tracking the mayoral races in Edmonton and Calgary as an experiment to test the theory of Twitter mentions as a predictor of election outcomes. Some candidates in both races are posting extremely low or even no traction on Twitter. That makes this a good time to do some cleanup, removing candidates whose mention counts are so low they may the graphs hard to read. While I’m no longer showing them in the graphs, I am still tracking the candidates with low Twitter counts. This explains why the share distribution identified in the graphs doesn’t total 100%.

The following analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat covers the period of September 28 through October 4, inclusive. I’ve included election-to-date analysis as well for tracking purposes.

Prediction for Calgary: Naheed Nenshi

This week’s cleanup sees the removal of eight candidates whose paltry Twitter mentions effectively eliminate them from the race. Gone are Michael Abramenko, Oscar Fech, Larry Heather, Amanda Liu, Alex Morozov, Helen Mowat, Milan Papez and Norm Perrault. I’ll leave Carter Thomson in for another week.

Twitter suggests this is a no-contest election. With 80% of the Twitter activity, this is incumbent Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s election to lose. His nearest competitor is Jon Lord with a distant 17% of the mentions. It’s noteworthy that Lord’s share of mentions more than doubled from last week’s 8% while Nenshi’s fell 5%. Thompson also doubled, from 1% to 2%.

YYCvotes-week2

The running totals further illustrate Mayor Nenshi’s commanding lead. After two weeks, the incumbent’s cummulative mentions anchor him at 85%.

YYCvotes-week2-todate

Prediction for Edmonton: Don Iveson

Fang Hu is the only candidate to be removed from my analysis. Note I’m still collecting data on mentions. However, I’m no longer reporting on Hu since he had no mentions for the second week running. Kristine Acielo and Josh Semotiuk are likely to be dropped from my analysis next week given the low number of mentions they’re earning.

Despite losing a 9% share of the mentions, Don Iveson is still attracting the greatest number of mentions among the field of candidates. His 43% still leads second place Kerry Diotte who picked up 2% to 31%, and third place Karen Leibovici who gained 3% to 21%. Kristine Acielo and Josh Semotiuk combine for 5%.

YEGvotes-week2

After two weeks, Don Iveson is holding strong with 47% of the cumulative mentions, Kerry Diotte has 30% and Karen Leibovici sits at 20%. Kristine Acielo and Josh Semotiuk combine for 2% of the cumulative mentions.

YEGvotes-week2-todate

Analysis performed using Marketwired/Sysomos Heartbeat.

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